Lower congestion levels in 2024 and 2025 point to a new equilibrium in the EU gas market
What is it about?
ACER publishes today its biennial gas congestion report, covering 2024 and 2025. The report assesses contractual congestion in EU gas markets, in line with the recast Gas Regulation.
ACER finds that contractual congestion eased in 2024 and 2025, pointing to a new equilibrium in the EU gas market following the 2022 market crisis.
What does congestion mean in gas markets?
Gas network congestion can be either contractual or physical. Physical congestion occurs when gas flows reach the system’s technical limits. Contractual congestion occurs when demand for capacity rights exceeds the capacity offered in the market, even if the system may not be physically constrained.
In practice, contractual congestion means that network users may not be able to secure all the capacity they need to transport gas, forcing them to compete for it.
What are they key findings?
The 2022–2023 crisis, followed by the EU’s gradual phase-out of Russian gas, rapidly reshaped the EU gas market. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports surged while demand fell sharply, leading to a reconfiguration of cross-border gas flows, with stronger west-to-east and coastal-to-continental flows.
The optimisation of existing infrastructure and new investments helped absorb the shock. However, parts of the network still face residual congestion, reflecting the market’s continued adjustment to new supply and demand patterns.
In particular, ACER finds that:
24 exit/entry sides of interconnection points were contractually congested in 2025 and 23 in 2024 (down from 35 in 2023 and 50 in 2022).
Network congestion persisted on key west-to-east routes and selected interconnection points in Southeast Europe.
Congestion revenues stabilised at EUR 140 million (similar to 2023 levels).
The capacity surrender scheme surpassed the oversubscription mechanism as the most used congestion management procedure. Surrender schemes allow users to return unused capacity for reallocation, while oversubscription allows additional capacity to be offered above technical limits based on potential unused capacity.
Possible ways forward to ease congestion
Continuous coordination between neighbouring transmission system operators (TSOs) to jointly maximise available firm and interruptible capacities.
Regular updates by TSOs and ENTSOG on interconnection points characteristics and network usage.
Fully applying the Capacity Allocation Mechanism Network Code and congestion management procedure guidelines to retain the benefits and flexibility of capacity allocation at interconnection points.
Careful assessment of investment needs where physical bottlenecks persist, taking into account the risk of asset stranding and considering the use of congestion revenues to help finance these investments.
What are the next steps?
ACER’s results can support national regulatory authorities when deciding whether to apply congestion management procedures.