A vision for the future
Network development scenarios represent visions of the future, according to which the assessment of projects’ benefits is made using the CBA. The TEN-E Regulation defines which variables should comprise scenarios for electricity and gas. The European Network of Transmission System Operators (ENTSOs) are responsible for developing common network development scenarios for gas and electricity.
What's the role of ACER?
Every two years, ACER provides an Opinion on the draft TYNDP, encompassing our views on scenarios either as its integral part, or through a separate, dedicated opinion on scenarios.
What does ACER say?
In its latest Opinion (July 2022), ACER identified some key issues, namely:
the absence of long term effects on the European energy markets caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine (e.g. effects on the gas prices, the location of gas sources, the speed-up of renewable energy sources (RES) intake, etc.),
the (recurrent) lack of a common “slow economic development” scenario (describing how the energy system is to develop under less favourable economic conditions),
the need to further clarify the connection between various scenarios (to enable a better understanding of diverse scenarios’ results).
ACER suggests that the diversity of scenarios should be better addressed in the new Scenario Guidelines.
However, ACER further notes the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine should be included in the analysis of ENTSOs’ final report for 2022, as it could have a significant effect on the 2022 TYNDPs and subsequent PCIs selection.