ACER webinar: Improving EU scenario development to meet future energy needs
What is it about?
In November 2024, ACER commissioned a consultancy study to explore key challenges in scenario development for two core EU energy planning processes:
the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG; and
the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA) by ENTSO-E.
The study (published in August 2025) offers a set of recommendations to improve scenario-building practices, particularly by strengthening consistency, transparency and stakeholder engagement.
Event objective
The webinar will outline the study’s key findings and recommendations to address current challenges in scenario development. It is aimed at policymakers, regulators, system operators and other stakeholders involved in EU energy infrastructure and adequacy processes. Participants will gain insights into the study’s conclusions and explore how its recommendations could support future improvements in scenario-building.
Background
Achieving the EU’s decarbonisation targets will require better use of existing energy grids as well as new investments. Scenario development plays an important role in this context, as it helps assess how supply and demand may evolve over time, supporting long-term planning and adequacy assessments.
Developing reliable scenarios, reflecting both EU and national policy objectives, is key to identifying infrastructure investment needs and anticipating potential adequacy concerns.
As energy scenarios used across different processes are closely interconnected, both EU legislation (e.g. the revised TEN-E Regulation) and methodological frameworks (e.g. ACER’s decision on the ERAA methodology) call for stronger alignment between:
national energy and climate plans (NECPs);
Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs); and
the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA).
ACER's consultancy study examines how scenarios are developed and how national energy and climate plans are currently reflected in the TYNDP and ERAA. It identifies gaps related to timing, data availability, transparency and the overall alignment of the scenarios used in these planning tools. It also proposes ways to improve the coherence of scenario input data, the validation of this input and the engagement of all relevant stakeholders.
