The EU has reshaped its gas supply since 2022 by replacing Russian pipeline gas with liquefied natural gas (LNG), which now accounts for nearly half of EU’s gas supply. This shift has strengthened Europe’s energy security by diversifying supply and will continue under the EU’s REPowerEU Roadmap on Russian gas phase-out, which ends Russian LNG imports by the end of 2026 and Russian pipeline gas imports by the end of 2027. 

At the same time, the growing role of LNG has increased the EU’s exposure to global LNG markets, particularly to US supply, and to renewed price volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

This year, ACER’s annual LNG report has a particular focus on the impact of the Middle East conflict on the EU market.

What trends did ACER monitoring find in 2025? 

• ACER’s daily LNG price assessments provide transparency on the EU LNG spot market: ACER is unique in having real data on EU LNG spot transactions, based exclusively on actual trades. Spot trades for delivery in the EU reported to ACER rose from 500 in 2023 and 550 in 2024 to more than 980 in 2025.
• Record EU LNG imports: In 2025, the EU imported a record 146 bcm, delivered through 1,850 cargoes (compared to 112 bcm in 2024 and 134 bcm in 2023). The EU is the world’s biggest LNG importer.
• Strong global supply growth: Global LNG production increased by 36 bcm in 2025, the strongest annual growth since 2022.
• New wave of LNG project approvals: Final investment decisions for new LNG export capacity reached a remarkable 90 bcm in 2025, supporting future supply availability.
• Rising reliance on US: The US supplied 58% of EU LNG imports in 2025, equivalent to around 25% of total EU gas demand.
• New supply helped contained prices: Additional LNG production capacity contributed to more stable prices and lower volatility, although tensions in the Middle East briefly pushed TTF intraday prices above EUR 70/MWh.
• TTF remained as the LNG pricing benchmark: The Dutch gas trading hub was used to price 74% of EU spot LNG trades.
• A full-year Strait of Hormuz closure in 2026 would significantly tighten supply: If the strait were fully closed throughout 2026, the global LNG market would face a net supply shortfall of 27 bcm compared with 2025, intensifying global competition for spot cargoes.
• Gas demand flexibility under stress: To offset supply losses in a full-year Strait closure scenario, further adjustment would likely need to come from lower gas consumption, through fuel switching, behaviour-driven gas savings, administrative restrictions or reduced affordability due to high prices.
• A mid-2026 Strait reopening would improve the outlook: If the Strait of Hormuz reopened and Qatar and the UAE returned to pre-disruption production levels by 1 July 2026, global LNG supply could recover significantly, increasing by 20 bcm year on year.