ACER has recently published an Opinion on the ENTSO-E's draft Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Forecast 2014-2030.
The Agency notes positively the fact that ENTSO-E, acknowledging the uncertainties involved in the long-term planning of the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP), adopted a scenario approach, including diverging assumption on various relevant parameters. In addition, the Agency acknowledges the value of the extensive engagement of the relevant stakeholders during the development process of the draft SOAF, through public workshops and call for inputs. However, the Agency deems that the whole methodology of constructing the necessary scenarios for the purposes of the TYNDP development process to be described in a comprehensive way and consulted with stakeholders. The Agency also deems that a review of the methodology by independent experts might contribute towards increasing the confidence on its results. In addition, the Agency sees room for improvement in the area of transparency of data values used and data sources.
Further remarks by the Agency in its Opinion include:
- ENTSO-E could proceed in commenting and, where useful, implementing, suggestions by stakeholders included in the Long Term Network Development Stakeholder Group report
- The TYNDP scenarios, while encompassing a wide range of the analysed parameters, should nonetheless be assessed for ‘feasibility’ related to factors such as system adequacy, economic viability of investments in generating capacity, flexibility embedded in the assumed system and dependence on gas.
- Further to the already proposed scenarios for TYNDP purposes, a scenario with high energy prices and high development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) is worth considering in the future Scenario Development reports, as high prices of conventional fuels are considered to be one of the main drivers for fostering RES deployment.
- The acknowledgement that ENTSO-E is in the process of re-designing the –currently deterministic- methodology for the adequacy assessment published in the SOAF reports. In this respect, the Agency expects ENTSO-E to present and consult on an integrated methodology, before applying it to the future SOAF reports.
Furthermore, concerning adequacy, the Agency notes that the draft SOAF 2014: (a) contains assessment of adequacy up to 2025, while Regulation (EC) No 714/2009 requires adequacy assessment for a 5-15 years horizon from the date of the assessment and (b) does not include adequacy assessment based on market studies (a topic already present in SOAF 2012).
Finally, the Agency suggests that ENTSO-E adopts a two-year period (instead of yearly, according to the current practice) for issuing separately the reports relevant to scenario development and adequacy assessment. Biennial edition of Scenario Development reports would reduce the effort compared to an annual publication and would allow more time to assess potential factors which may lead to different assumptions and estimations and updated methodologies between successive editions.