ACER publishes an Opinion on the key elements of ENTSOs’ draft network development scenarios (2022)

Electricity and Gas projects

ACER publishes an Opinion on the key elements of ENTSOs’ draft network development scenarios (2022)

What is it about?

The EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) publishes today its Opinion on the key elements of the draft Ten Year Network Development Plans (TYNDP) Scenario Report (2022), drafted by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) and for Gas (ENTSOG).

What are ENTSO’s network development scenarios?

ENTSOs’ network development scenarios represent visions of potential future developments of energy system’s key aspects (e.g. demand, energy prices, technologies, etc.).

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG published their joint draft TYNDP 2022 Scenario Report on 11 April 2022.

ENTSOs’ network development scenarios play an important role in the definition of the pan-European network development plans for gas and electricity. They are also instrumental for selecting the Projects of Common Interest (PCIs). As such, it is essential to define trustworthy, transparent, realistic scenarios that are aligned with the European energy and climate objectives.

In particular, the scenarios described within the draft TYNDP Scenario Report will set the basis for the 2022 TYNDP for gas and electricity transmission networks, expected to be published later this year.

What are the Opinion’s main conclusions?

ACER publishes its Opinion on ENTSOs’ draft network development scenarios on a biennial basis.

In this year’s draft Report, ACER identified some key issues, namely:

  • the absence of long term effects on the European energy markets caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine (e.g. effects on the gas prices, the location of gas sources, the speed-up of renewable energy sources (RES) intake, etc.),

  • the (recurrent) lack of a common “slow economic development” scenario (describing how the energy system is to develop under less favourable economic conditions),

  • the need to further clarify the connection between various scenarios (to enable a better understanding of diverse scenarios’ results).

ACER suggests that the diversity of scenarios should be better addressed in the new Scenario Guidelines.

However, ACER further notes the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine should be included in the analysis of ENTSOs’ final report for 2022, as it could have a significant effect on the 2022 TYNDPs and subsequent PCIs selection.

While recognising the tight timeline, ENTSOs are strongly encouraged to update at least one scenario:

  • ENTSO-E should update at least the gas prices and RES integration levels considered into the analysis,

  • ENTSOG should also consider the existing changes of gas sources and flows.

An amended set of scenarios should be made available for the 2022 TYNDPs as soon as possible. ACER is ready to engage and provide support to ensure these amendments can be applied in a timely manner.

Read more on ACER's Opinion.