The EU will need higher LNG imports to refill gas storage ahead of winter
The EU will need higher LNG imports to refill gas storage ahead of winter
What is it about?
Figure 1: Annual comparison of EU’s Underground Gas Storage (UGS) injections in the summer (between 1 April and 30 June 2026).
Source: ACER based on GIE AGSI data (updated to 2 July 2026).
Figure 2: Comparison of EU’s gas storage filling levels across years.
Source: ACER based on GIE AGSI data (updated to 2 July 2026).
In its Summer Supply Outlook 2026, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) evaluates the evolution of gas supply and assesses whether the EU’s gas system can meet demand, support exports and storage injections over the summer under normal market conditions.
The Outlook also includes an analysis of supplies and storage inventories to assess security of supply for winter 2026/27 and evaluates the system’s resilience under different stress scenarios, including supply disruptions.
ACER acknowledges the storage-filling challenges identified by ENTSOG. As this year’s reference scenario does not introduce major methodological changes compared with previous editions (extensively reviewed by ACER), ACER is not issuing a formal opinion on the 2026 edition.
What are the main highlights of the 2026 Summer Supply Outlook?
ENTSOG's assessment identifies several developments that will shape the EU’s gas system over the summer season:
- Low storage levels: At the start of the gas summer season (1 April 2026), average EU gas storage stood at 28% capacity, below the levels recorded at the start of the previous three summer seasons.
- High LNG demand: Refilling storage to the 90% target before winter (by 1 November) will require greater use of the EU’s gas infrastructure and higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports than in previous years. At the same time, ENTSOG notes that EU Gas Storage Regulation provides some flexibility, allowing a lower filling target.
- Supply disruption risks: The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is pushing up gas prices and narrowing the usual summer-to-winter price gap. This weakens the economic incentive for gas storage injections, which could further slow refilling.
- A resilient system: The EU’s LNG regasification capacity is expected to help compensate for lower storage levels and support winter demand, provided adequate LNG supplies are secured.
What are ACER’s main considerations?
ACER highlights the challenges ahead, as identified in ENTSOG’s assessment:
- The EU will need higher LNG imports. ACER’s latest analysis of European gas wholesale markets (winter 2025/2026) confirms that the EU’s LNG imports will need to rise by around 13% over 2025 levels to meet summer demand and reach the 90% filling target before winter, while the 80% target remains achievable with 2025 LNG import levels. This reflects LNG’s growing role in the EU’s energy mix: it covers around half of total gas imports, making the EU the world’s largest LNG importer (see also ACER’s analysis of European LNG market developments in 2025).
- Market conditions are weakening storage-filling incentives. Storage refilling could become more challenging in the months ahead. Unfavourable winter–summer price spreads, the phase-out of short-term Russian LNG and pipeline gas contracts under the REPowerEU Gas Regulation (from 25 April and 17 June 2026, respectively) and continued volatility due to the Middle East conflict constrain the supply available for storage, increasing the pressure to accelerate injections before November.
- Current data point to tight storage conditions:
- Storage injections are below both the 10-year summer average and 2025 levels, putting the refilling timeline at risk (see Figure 1).
EU gas storage is currently at around 49% capacity, similar to 2021 levels (see Figure 2).
Given these risks, ACER encourages Member States and their competent authorities to closely monitor storage-filling trajectories in the months ahead and foster continued progress, actively managing risks in compliance with the Gas Storage Regulation.
Looking ahead
ACER welcomes ENTSOG’s ongoing monitoring of storage injection trajectories and LNG import availability, as geopolitical instability continues to affect global energy markets.
For future Outlooks, ACER underlines the importance of continuing to assess how planned and unplanned gas supply disruptions may affect the EU’s ability to meet its storage-filling targets.
Finally, ACER highlights the need for timely storage injections in the coming months.