ACER welcomes ENTSO-E’s Winter Outlook and stresses the value of coordinated analysis for the European security of electricity supply

Ahead of every winter and summer, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) assesses the potential risks to the European security of electricity supply for the six months ahead. This analysis allows Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Member States to take relevant actions and ensure the European consumers are supplied without interruption.

What are the risks this winter?

ENTSO-E’s Winter Outlook 2023-2024 finds that the situation in the European power system for this winter is more secure than last year.

• Risk of power interruption appears in the islands of Ireland, Malta, and Cyprus – a pattern that has repeated in past seasonal outlooks. With limited interconnections, islands need to rely mostly on their own resources. This highlights the major role played by interconnectivity in the security of supply. Finland may also face risk in the event of exceptionally adverse conditions.
• Regional risks: the Outlook also identified a potential risk associated with a surge in French demand, triggered by the drop in temperatures. This demand increase could impact Belgium and Great Britain, showcasing the importance of effective coordination to solve potential regional risks.

What does ACER say?

• Continuing good practice: ACER appreciates that the Winter Outlook continues to analyse the electricity saving potential and the critical gas volume needed to ensure security of electricity supply. This addition provides complementary information to Member States, system operators, and other stakeholders to take relevant actions.
• Collaboration with Ukraine and Moldova: ACER welcomes the enhanced cooperation efforts with the Ukrainian and Moldovan system operators. These efforts contribute to reducing the system risks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and addressing the challenges faced.
• Improve the methodology: ACER stresses the methodological gap persisting in the seasonal outlooks, as highlighted in the last opinions. Particularly, ENTSO-E does not apply the flow-based market coupling in its model, although it has already been in place for several years, helping the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to allocate cross-border capacities more efficiently. Without this approach, the forecasts may diverge from real outcomes and from national seasonal assessments.