Middle East impact: Filling EU gas storage will be expensive in a competitive LNG market

ACER's latest gas Monitoring Report covers trends in winter 2025-2026. A key is the impact of the evolving Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on European gas markets.

This analysis helps inform decision makers on strategies to ensure secure and competitively priced gas in the EU.

What did ACER’s monitoring find?

The EU is vulnerable to energy shocks. To date the 2026 energy crisis is not at the same level of magnitude as the 2022-2023 crisis.

• The Middle East conflict crisis could cut 20% of global LNG exports: EU sourced 7% of its LNG from Qatar during winter 2025/2026, equivalent to 4% of its natural gas imports over the same period. If Qatari production remains offline until December 2026, a global LNG supply shortfall of 26 bcm could arise and EU spot LNG demand could rise to around 56 bcm. Europe’s exposure to further price increases will depend on the duration of the conflict.
• Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas prices peaked above 60 EUR/MWh after attacks on energy facilities: Price volatility is expected to remain high amid continued uncertainty.
• Competition with Asia for flexible LNG cargoes could push prices up: This could make Europe's summer storage filling more challenging, as heightened competition for flexible LNG cargoes threatens to push prices up further.
• EU underground gas storage ended winter below 30%, due to both higher reliance on gas use for power and a cold winter. EU gas stocks are near a 9-year low.
• Storage targets for the next winter, in accordance with the EU Gas Storage Regulation, may put upward pressure on prices this summer.
• Europe could achieve 80% storage levels at current LNG import rates (~11 bcm/month). Reaching the 90% target would be difficult without additional supply sources. 
• EU gas demand rose slightly year-on-year to around 2400 TWh: This increase was mainly driven by higher gas use in power generation and for heating, due to a colder-than-average winter. 
• Europe’s reliance on US LNG grew amid the phase-out of Russian gas imports. US LNG now accounts for 30% of EU gas imports and about two-thirds of its LNG imports. Russian gas flows continued to decline, falling close to 240 TWh (but still around 14% of total EU gas imports).
• In Europe, gas flows continued to shift away from eastern pipeline supply and to LNG entry points, resulting in higher west–east cross border flows. This shift was also reflected in wholesale market signals, with price spreads in Central Europe widening to over 2 EUR/MWh above the TTF benchmark.

Looking ahead

• Heightened price volatility: European gas prices will remain highly sensitive to global shocks. The Middle East conflict and strong competition with Asian markets for flexible LNG cargoes will be the main drivers of price spikes.
• Costly storage refills: While reaching the 80% storage target ahead of next winter is feasible, lower starting storage stocks and tight global supply mean that filling storage over the summer will likely come at a premium cost and be more vulnerable to sudden market disruptions.
• Geopolitics and supply shifts: Europe's structural pivot away from Russian gas supply will continue. In January 2026, the EU adopted a regulation introducing a gradual and permanent ban on Russian pipeline and LNG imports. This deepens the EU’s reliance on US LNG imports and maintains a west–east and coastal–continental gas pipeline flow in Europe.