European hydrogen markets

  • Gas
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H2 market

2024 Market Monitoring Report

This report marks the start of ACER’s work in monitoring the emerging European hydrogen market (as mandated by the Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package).

This first hydrogen Market Monitoring Report (MMR), covering 2023 and first half of 2024, sheds light on the main regulatory challenges of the hydrogen markets at EU and national level. It addresses issues such as the repurposing of gas networks and the need for greater coordination by hydrogen, natural gas and electricity network operators.

What market trends did ACER monitoring find?

  • Current levels and trends of hydrogen demand mean the EU is likely to miss its 2030 strategic goal of 20 Mt renewable hydrogen consumption:
    • Current hydrogen consumption at EU level is 7.2 Mt (99.7% of it produced from fossil fuels).
    • EU renewable energy and decarbonisation targets can increase demand for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen by 2030, but so far uptake has been slow.
  • Slow electrolysers rollout means the EU is likely to miss its renewable hydrogen production target:
    • Total installed capacity of electrolysers in Europe in 2023 was 216 MW.
    • Another 1.8 GW of projects expected to become operational by end-2026.
    • Around 70 GW of projects announced to be operational by 2030, but few are advanced.
    • Overall planned electrolyser capacity is significantly less than the 100+ GW needed to reach EU’s 10 Mt renewable hydrogen production target by 2030.
  • High costs prevent renewable hydrogen uptake:
    • Renewable hydrogen produced via electrolysis is 3 to 4 times more expensive than hydrogen produced from natural gas, discouraging early offtake.
    • Significant electrolysers scale-up and renewable electricity cost reductions are necessary to reduce renewable hydrogen production costs.
  • Significant infrastructure plans face uncertainties in implementation:
    • 42,000 km of hydrogen pipelines, numerous storage projects and terminals are planned for the next decade, but only 1% has reached final investment decision, as future hydrogen demand uncertainties pose significant challenges to project promoters.
    • Integrated planning by (gas, electricity and hydrogen) network operators is needed to ensure grid development at sufficient pace and to optimally locate electrolysers.
  • Supporting initiatives to close investment gaps:
    • A lot of EU-wide and national support schemes are set to bridge the investment gap, but it can be challenging for project investors to navigate them.
    • European Hydrogen Bank’s (EHB) November 2023 auctions resulted in low premiums, revealing cases of low renewable hydrogen production costs and some off-takers’ willingness to pay within the cost range.
    • Cost uncertainties still pose risks for early investors, highlighting the need for clearer cost information to increase demand for hydrogen.

What are ACER’s key recommendations?

  • Quickly transpose the hydrogen and decarbonised gas package into national legislation and proceed with its implementation. Member States need to develop their national hydrogen markets in line with the EU framework to enable infrastructure development and avoid fragmentation.
  • Speed up electrolysers deployment and decarbonisation of electricity sector to increase renewable hydrogen competitiveness. Capital expenditures and electricity are the primary cost drivers for renewable hydrogen. Scaling up global electrolyser production and access to cheap renewables is key to lower the cost of renewable hydrogen.
  • When future demand is highly uncertain, consider incremental infrastructure development based on market needs (to avoid building too much network too fast and stranded assets).
  • Consider carefully the repurposing of gas networks for hydrogen to minimise costs, while not overlooking the potential impacts on the broader gas sector (including security of gas supplies).                     
  • Provide market certainty over the role of non-renewable, low-carbon hydrogen. To reduce hydrogen uptake costs, some stakeholders advocate to use hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture in the short/mid-term. Clarity on the uptake of non-renewable hydrogen should be provided by the European Commission and Member States.

Highlights

  • EU must accelerate if it is to meet its 2030 renewable hydrogen (H2) goals.

  • Integrated planning and coordinated investments in electricity and hydrogen networks are key to develop the hydrogen market.

  • Scale up electrolysers deployment & decarbonise electricity sector to reduce renewable H2 production costs and improve its competitiveness.

Report

Europe's Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation legislation (2024) tasks ACER with monitoring the emerging hydrogen market.

ACER's first hydrogen monitoring report highlights that, despite ambitious EU strategies, hydrogen projects face risks from uncertainties of future hydrogen demand and high costs.

  Access the report

Infographic

Interested in the main highlights of the report?

  Dive into our infographic

Webinar

ACER will hold a webinar to present the main findings and recommendations of this report.

When?

Tuesday, 3 December 2024 at 10:00 CEST.

  Register for free here

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ACER webinar on Europe's emerging hydrogen market

Additional information

Yes

ACER scrutinises the bi-directional gas flow decision at the EUGAL interconnection between Czech Republic and Germany

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Gas pipes
Intro News
ACER has released its Opinion on a recent decision concerning the bi-directional gas flow capacity at the cross-border Interconnection Point 'Deutschneudorf EUGAL' between Germany and the Czech Republic.

ACER scrutinises the bi-directional gas flow decision at the EUGAL interconnection between Czech Republic and Germany

What is it about?

ACER has released its Opinion on a recent decision concerning the bi-directional gas flow capacity at the cross-border Interconnection Point (IP) ‘Deutschneudorf EUGAL’ between Germany and the Czech Republic.

What is bi-directional gas flow capacity?

Under the European Security of Gas Supply Regulation, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) must establish permanent physical capacity for gas transport in both directions (bi-directional capacity) at all IPs between Member States. However, temporary exemptions can be granted following a detailed assessment and consultations with stakeholders, other Member States, and the European Commission.

ACER’s assessment

ACER reviewed the decision by Bundesnetzagentur, the German National Regulatory Authority (NRA), which was taken in coordination with the Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade. The decision accepts the German TSO’s proposal, which claims that the obligation for bi-directional capacity at the EUGAL IP has already been fulfilled. It concludes that both countries meet the necessary infrastructure standards for securing gas supply and that there is no need for additional capacities from the Czech Republic to Germany.

While ACER considers that the decision complies with most of the Regulation requirements, it identified two missing elements:

  • a feasibility study; and
  • a cost-benefit analysis (CBA).

Additionally, the TSO proposal and the decision state that the need for an exemption to maintain bi-directional gas flow capacity at the ‘Deutschneudorf EUGAL’ IP is no longer necessary, as bi-directional gas flow capacity could be ensured during a gas supply crisis scenario. However, ACER notes that no significant investments or capacity upgrades took place at this IP between 2020 and 2024.

What are the next steps?

ACER has submitted its Opinion to the relevant authorities of Germany and the Czech Republic, as well as to the European Commission for further consideration. The Commission may choose to either raise no objections to the decision or request modifications to it.

ACER’s monitoring shows European gas markets avoided severe gas price volatility in the third quarter of 2024

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Gas market key developments first half of 2024
Intro News
This third 2024 quarterly report on key developments in European gas wholesale markets finds that despite supply uncertainty re-emerging, Europe avoided severe gas price volatility.

ACER’s monitoring shows European gas markets avoided severe gas price volatility in the third quarter of 2024

What is it about?

Today, ACER releases its third quarterly review of key developments in European gas wholesale markets as part of its 2024 Market Monitoring Report (MMR). The first and second publication were issued respectively in March and July 2024.

The report finds that despite supply uncertainty re-emerging, Europe avoided severe gas price volatility in Q3 2024. What’s novel in this quarterly edition is the new focus on the evolution of cross-border gas transport tariffs, which have been rising in recent years. While transport costs currently have a relatively small impact on price formation, their influence is expected to grow, affecting how the EU gas market operates in the future.

  • Gas prices: In Q3 2024, European gas wholesale prices rose but remained less volatile than last year due to increased Norwegian supply, healthy storage levels, and low demand.
  • Price integration: Price integration across most EU gas hubs remained consistent, although some divergence occurred due to the rising German storage levy.
  • Gas demand: Stagnant household demand and a modest increase in industrial demand were outweighed by a reduced call on gas-fired electricity generation, leaving overall EU gas demand slightly lower than in 2023 and well below pre-crisis levels.
  • Renewables continue to displace gas generation: Increased renewables’ output limited the opportunities for conventional power plants (gas and coal) to run profitably. This lowered carbon emissions, loosened the EU gas demand-supply balance and reduced instances of gas setting marginal prices in electricity markets.
  • Storage: The EU reached its 90% gas storage target ahead of schedule, despite lower year-on-year injections throughout the quarter.
  • Transmission tariffs: Gas transmission tariffs have been rising in some EU countries, with little evidence so far of impacting price convergence. More tariff increases are expected in the near-term, warranting monitoring of the effects of tariff changes on cross-border trade and market integration.

What challenges lie ahead?

  • The Russian gas transit agreement through Ukraine expires in 2024, pushing Central Europe to seek alternative supply routes.
  • If gas withdrawals this winter significantly exceed the previous years, the EU may face increased competition in LNG markets for 2025, potentially driving up wholesale gas prices.
  • Several LNG production projects are under construction, but major new LNG volumes are expected only from 2026 onwards.

ACER will continue to closely monitor trends in the European gas markets that could lead to short-term volatility for European energy markets. The next update on the European gas wholesale markets will be published early in 2025.

Check out our other 2024 MMR publications.

ACER calls for improvements in ENTSOs’ 2024 draft TYNDP scenarios to comply with its Framework Guidelines

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Pylon and pipelines
Intro News
ACER publishes its Opinion on the compliance of the draft joint Scenarios Report for the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2024 with ACER’s Framework Guidelines.

ACER calls for improvements in ENTSOs’ 2024 draft TYNDP scenarios to comply with its Framework Guidelines

What is it about?

ACER publishes today its Opinion on the compliance of the draft joint Scenarios Report for the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2024 with ACER’s Framework Guidelines.

The draft joint Scenarios Report for the TYNDP is issued by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) and electricity (ENTSO-E) every two years. ACER reviews the draft Scenarios Report to ensure compliance with its Framework Guidelines, as this contributes to build a solid foundation to the European energy network development.

What are the network development scenarios?

Network development scenarios are key for planning future energy infrastructure. They project the evolution of the European energy system over the coming decade and guide the development of infrastructure needed to achieve Europe’s decarbonisation goals.

​​​​​Under the TEN-E Regulation, ACER is responsible for creating Framework Guidelines for Scenario Development, while ENTSOG and ENTSO-E (the ‘ENTSOs’) are tasked with developing network scenarios based on these guidelines. In January 2023, ACER published its Framework Guidelines, aiming to establish a transparent, inclusive, and robust process.

What are ACER’s key findings?

While welcoming some improvements in the scenarios’ development process, ACER’s assessment identifies several areas of non-compliance with its Framework Guidelines:

  • Diverging scenarios: rather than developing different scenario variants based on economic factors, the ENTSOs created diverging scenarios, leading to less reliable results.
  • Delayed process: scenarios’ development was delayed, negatively impacting other processes, such as the infrastructure gaps assessment or the project-specific cost-benefit analysis.
  • Slower stakeholder group formation: the process of establishing the Stakeholder Reference Group took longer than expected, which impacted the stakeholder engagement’s overall effectiveness.
  • Transparency: despite enhanced transparency and stakeholder consultations, the draft 2024 Scenarios Report still did not fully meet the transparency standards set by the Framework Guidelines. For instance, a detailed reasoning on how the stakeholders’ observations were addressed or considered has not been provided.

What are the next steps?

ACER expects some of these issues to be addressed in the final 2024 Scenarios Report for the TYNDP and anticipates that ENTSOG and ENTSO-E will further tackle the remaining shortcomings in the 2026 scenarios.

In line with the TEN-E Regulation, the European Commission will review the draft joint Scenarios Report for TYNDP and, taking into account ACER’s Opinion, it will either approve it or ask the ENTSOs for amendments.

Active consumer participation is key to driving the energy transition – how can it happen?

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Light switch off
Intro News
The ACER-CEER 2024 MMR on energy retail and consumer protection emphasises that the clean energy transition will not occur without power system flexibility and the active participation of energy consumers.

Active consumer participation is key to driving the energy transition – how can it happen?

What is it about?

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Retail infographic

The EU’s drive towards carbon neutrality by 2050 requires swift changes. Today’s ACER-CEER 2024 Market Monitoring Report on energy retail and consumer protection emphasises that the clean energy transition will not occur without power system flexibility and the active participation of energy consumers.

Which key challenges did the report identify?

  • Slow smart meter adoption
  • Increased price volatility
  • Fixed contracts dominate
  • Member States price interventions hinder flexibility

What are the key recommendations of the energy regulators’ report?

Retail markets can play a pivotal role as providers of flexibility. Unlocking more flexible retail consumption is crucial for the energy transition's success. It also creates opportunities for consumers to benefit from lower energy prices.

The report calls on regulatory authorities and Member States to prioritise demand-side response frameworks, incentivise efficient grid use, and accelerate the rollout of smart meters. Dynamic pricing and flexible contracts are key to empowering consumers.

To unlock greater flexibility in retail energy markets, the report calls for:

ACER's monitoring shows a gradual decrease in EU household energy prices

Average EU energy prices stabilised in 2024 after a major decrease the previous year, although they remain higher than pre-crisis levels. Retail price variations depend on contract types. Member States with more fixed-rate contracts saw slower reductions, leading to higher consumer costs compared to those with dynamic contracts.

To help track these trends, ACER has released a dashboard that shows the monthly changes in electricity and gas prices, including components like energy, network charges, and taxes across Member States from January 2019 to August 2024.

Get involved!

ACER and CEER will hold a webinar to present the report’s main findings and recommendations (Monday, 7 October 2024 at 14:00 CET). Register (for free) here.

Read more.

Explore the infographic.

REMIT breach: Spanish energy regulator fines Enérgya VM Gestión de Energía €1 million for gas market manipulation

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Gas market
Intro News
CNMC, the Spanish energy regulator, fines Enérgya VM Gestión de Energía €1 million for gas market manipulation.

REMIT breach: Spanish energy regulator fines Enérgya VM Gestión de Energía €1 million for gas market manipulation

What is it about?

The Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC) has imposed a €1 million fine on Enérgya VM Gestión de Energía, S.L.U. for manipulating the Spanish gas market.

This penalty comes under the REMIT Regulation (EU) No 1227/2011, which prohibits market manipulation and seeks to protect the integrity and transparency of the EU’s wholesale energy markets.

In its decision, CNMC found that Enérgya VM Gestión de Energía had breached Article 5 of REMIT, specifically Article 2.2.a.ii, in artificially setting the price by marking the reference ‘precio último diario’ (last daily price) for the Mibgas Spanish product D+1 across 32 trading sessions from 1 September to 31 December 2022.

The investigation revealed that Enérgya VM Gestión de Energía placed purchase orders without the intention of executing them, with bids entered between 0 and 7 seconds before the trading session’s closing. This behaviour minimised the risk of the Enérgya VM Gestión de Energía bids being matched by other market participants.

As a result of Enérgya VM Gestión de Energía’s actions, in the 32 trading sessions reported the closing bid-ask spread was reduced, impacting the calculation method of the last daily price that resulted artificially inflated.

ACER welcomes this decision by CNMC, which seeks to promote the transparency and integrity of the Spanish natural gas market.

Access the Decision and CNMC’s press release (both in Spanish).

See the latest table of REMIT breach sanction decisions adopted by national regulatory authorities.

Check the ACER REMIT Guidance (6th edition) for more information on the types of trading practices which could constitute market manipulation under REMIT.

Interested in further information on enforcement decisions under REMIT? Check out ACER’s REMIT Quarterly reports.

ACER will consult on the European market rules on gas transmission capacity allocation

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Gas transmission pipelines
Intro News
ACER initiated the revision process earlier this year. In autumn, ACER will hold a final public consultation to collect stakeholders’ feedback on its draft proposals.

ACER will consult on the European market rules on gas transmission capacity allocation

What is it about?

The Capacity Allocation Mechanisms Network Code (CAM NC) harmonises how Transmission System Operators (TSOs) offer and allocate available gas transmission pipeline capacity to network users. With Europe’s decarbonisation goals and the evolving gas market, the network code, last amended in 2017, now needs to be updated.

To address this, ACER initiated the revision process earlier this year. In autumn, ACER will hold a final public consultation to collect stakeholders’ feedback on its draft proposals.

The revision process

The revision process is informed by new regulatory elements from the hydrogen and gas decarbonisation package, ACER’s initial analysis of the network code's achievements and areas for improvement, alongside continuous dialogue with stakeholders:

  • ACER conducted a preliminary analysis (from October 2023 to January 2024) to identify main achievements and potential improvements to the CAM NC (see the scoping consultation and the workshop).
  • These findings were shared with the European Commission, which prompted ACER to initiate the revision process.  
  • In spring 2024, ACER developed a policy paper proposing potential improvements to the CAM NC, and sought feedback through a public consultation.
  • A technical workshop was held in July 2024 to further discuss the proposed revisions with the consultation respondents.

What are the next steps?

ACER will hold a final public consultation from 26 September to 25 October 2024 to ensure the proposed amendments effectively address market needs and deliver the expected improvements.  

The CAM NC revision process will conclude with ACER’s recommendations to the Commission (expected by December 2024), which is responsible for revising the text of the network code.

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CAM_NC_September

ACER confirms that the Danish emergency gas supply tariffs comply with the EU network code

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Underwater gas pipes
Intro News
ACER publishes its report on the Danish non-transmission tariffs proposed by Energinet, Denmark’s Transmission System Operator (TSO).

ACER confirms that the Danish emergency gas supply tariffs comply with the EU network code

What is it about?

Today, ACER publishes its report on the Danish non-transmission tariffs proposed by Energinet, Denmark’s Transmission System Operator (TSO). These tariffs cover the costs of Denmark’s emergency supply services, such as filling gas storage and providing emergency gas supply to non-protected consumers.

The proposed methodology includes:

  • An ex-ante tariff, calculated using a postage stamp reference price methodology (RPM), which distributes emergency service costs equally among all non-protected consumers.
  • An ex-post compensation, which adjusts cost allocation after gas is delivered based on the actual gas volumes received by each non-protected consumer during an emergency.

What are the key findings?

ACER evaluated the compliance of the proposed methodology with the requirements of the Network Code on Harmonised Transmission Tariff Structures (NC TAR) and notes:

  • The ex-ante postage stamp tariff does not consider the varying risks of supply interruption among different non-protected customers.
  • Non-protected consumers receive equal protection for the first 72 hours after emergency measures begin. After this period, the risk of gas supply interruptions may depend on the remaining gas volumes.
  • Designing a cost-reflective ex-ante tariff is highly challenging due to information confidentiality and the uncertainty of supply emergencies.
  • In the event of a supply emergency, the ex-post compensation increases cost reflectivity by adjusting the initial tariff to reflect the actual level of interruption for each non-protected customer.
  • The consultation document lacks sufficient information on the functioning of the ex-post compensation mechanism.

ACER concludes that the proposed non-transmission tariffs comply with the NC TAR and recommends the Danish regulatory authority to ensure greater transparency by providing more detailed information on the ex-post compensation mechanism in their next decision.

Access all ACER reports on national tariff consultation documents.

ACER assesses the gas transmission tariff methodology proposed for Slovakia

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Intro News
Today, ACER releases its report on the Slovakian gas transmission tariffs proposed by Eustream A.S., the Transmission System Operator (TSO) of Slovakia.

ACER assesses the gas transmission tariff methodology proposed for Slovakia

What is it about?

Today, ACER releases its report on the Slovakian gas transmission tariffs proposed by Eustream A.S., the Transmission System Operator (TSO) of Slovakia.

The proposed methodology considers the changes in network patterns caused by the 2022 energy crisis. To address these, Eustream proposes:

  • Adopting a postage stamp reference price methodology (RPM) with a revenue split of 37.5/62.5 between entry and exit points.
  • Using a benchmarking adjustment to lower tariffs and attract additional flows to the network.

What does ACER recommend?

ACER analysed the information provided by Eustream to assess the compliance of the proposed methodology with the requirements of the Network Code on Harmonised Transmission Tariff Structures (NC TAR). Based on this analysis, ACER provides the following recommendations:

  • Review the revenue regime applicable to Eustream.
  • Apply the benchmarking adjustment only to points of the Slovak network that are in competition with other networks across the EU.
  • Clarify how the systematic under-recovery borne by the TSO is managed.
  • Assess the split of revenue and capacity between existing contracts (concluded before 6 May 2017 and defined by Article 35 of the NC TAR) and the proposed RPM.
  • Review the contracted capacity forecast, which serves as an input to the RPM.
  • Justify the level of the proposed risk premium considering the risks faced by the TSO.

What are the next steps?

On 5 June 2024, URSO, the National Regulatory Authority (NRA) of Slovakia, approved Eustream’s tariffs (covering the period from 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2027) after receiving ACER’s preliminary feedback.

ACER invites URSO to consider the recommendations included in this report, either by complementing its motivated decision (published on 5 June 2024) or in the next consultation on the RPM (provided this occurs by 2025).

Access all ACER reports on national tariff consultation documents.

ACER’s monitoring shows the EU gas balancing systems managed to adjust to new supply and demand conditions

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Gas pipe
Intro News
Today, ACER publishes the highlights of key indicators on the EU gas balancing system for the gas year 2022-2023.

ACER’s monitoring shows the EU gas balancing systems managed to adjust to new supply and demand conditions

What is it about?

The Gas Balancing Network Code (BAL NC) establishes market-based rules to ensure that gas supply and demand are balanced efficiently within the EU. Its aim is to promote short-term gas wholesale markets by financially incentivising network users to balance their positions using daily or within-day products, thus enhancing market flexibility and efficiency.

ACER annually monitors the effects of the BAL NC implementation and provides key indicators to help better understand balancing actions across Member States.

Today, ACER publishes the highlights of key indicators (also in a dashboard) on the EU gas balancing system for the gas year 2022-2023.

What are the key findings of ACER’s latest analysis?

ACER collected relevant information from Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs) to calculate and assess indicators that track balancing market developments in each Member State. These indicators measure:

  • TSOs’ balancing activities, including gas volumes, frequency, and average price spreads of their buying and selling actions.
  • Network users’ balancing activities, focusing on imbalance quantities, average imbalance prices, and price spreads to help understand whether network users have sufficient incentives to balance their positions under different national balancing regimes.
  • Neutrality indicators, describing the net payments charged or credited to network users per unit of market volume.

ACER analysed key indicators from the EU balancing systems in the gas year 2022-2023, comparing with previous years and among Member States. ACER notes that national policy decisions significantly influence the design of the national balancing regimes, which is reflected in these results.

Key findings include:

  • Balancing prices (both for TSOs' and network users' activity) have decreased substantially compared to the previous gas year (2021-2022), aligning with broader wholesale gas market trends.
  • These lower prices led to reduced net neutrality positions (net payments charged or credited to network users), marking a positive market development.
  • TSO balancing actions, as a share of total market volumes, remained stable compared to the pre-crisis period. However, most systems saw an increase in TSO sell actions year-on-year, suggesting the need for further investigations at the national level to assess potential security of supply implications.

What are the next steps?

ACER recommends NRAs to regularly assess the performance of their balancing regimes and consider adjusting the design based on changing market conditions.